- These agreements can have far-reaching influence on the geopolitics of the region and on their mutual interests.
- They also highlight India's growing disenchantment with the double standards of the US vis--vis Pakistan in regard to the war on terror.
The location of Iran in the region is significant as it serves as a natural corridor linking the Indian subcontinent with Central Asia. Building transport corridors and increasing energy cooperation have gained primacy. India has agreed to build a link from Zaranj on the Iran-Afghanistan border to Delaram, which leads to all major cities in Afghanistan. It would also link the Chah Bahar port to the Iranian rail network, which is connected to Central Asia and Europe. The third project deals with building a marine oil-tanking terminal in Iran. The Iranian President also declared Irans preparedness to cooperate with India in the reconstruction of Afghanistan.
Going by our experience during the Gulf war in 1991 it is evident that India will be one of the worst hit countries by conflict in the region. Around two-thirds of our imported energy requirements come from the Persian Gulf, which is likely to go upto 80 per cent by 2010. So it assumes enormous importance for energy security, especially since India has been trying to tap the unexplored markets in Central Asia and expand its strategic and economic presence in the region.
Cordial Indo-Iranian relations can also have a positive impact on the changing situation in Central Asia where attempts are being made to check the growth of religious extremism and establish an economic community (on the lines of EU and ASEAN) based on trade, oil and gas. Iran has offered to raise the volume of exports in crude oil to India against the backdrop of the war clouds over the Gulf. The two states also agreed to develop a mechanism to transport natural gas from Iran to India by removing the present hindrances.
Both nations share a common strategic perception about the developments in Afghanistan. Their identical positions are evident by their support to the Northern Alliance which had fought the previous Taliban regime, which had been detrimental to their core security and economic interests. Both want to ensure continuation of the Northern Alliance in Afghanistan that will be favourable to their national interests. Over the years, India and Iran have established great influence over key factions of the Northern Alliance. Iran had also played a positive role during the talks held in Bonn before establishing the Hamid Karzai government in Afghanistan.
Some Indian strategists are pessimistic about the potential of Iran to act as a moderate voice in the volatile region, given the stronghold of the Islamic hardliners in the regime. Hence Indias long-term goals might not be adequately addressed. They fear the emergence of an Iran-Pakistan nexus after the Afghan problem is resolved which could upset India's security calculus. It is also argued that selling advanced technology and deepening defence cooperation with Iran could have an adverse effect in our relations with other Middle East states, particularly Iraq, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Such a move would also jeopardize India's emerging strategic ties with Israel and strain its relations with the United States.
In this scenario it is prudent for India to seek short-term tactical gains by accessing the oil and gas resources of Iran. Cost effectiveness and energy security should determine our choices, since Iran is bound to remain a transit point for natural gas from Central Asia. New Delhi should develop contingency plans to meet its energy security in the light of the present crisis in the Gulf.
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Published on 21 March 2003, Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies.
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